Progressive Jackpot

Progressive Jackpot

A progressive jackpot is a jackpot highest payoff for a gaming machine usually a slot machine or video poker machine where the value of the jackpot increases a small amount for every game played. Normally multiple machines are linked together to form one large progressive jackpot that grows more quickly because multiple players are contributing to the jackpot at the same time.

The amount of the jackpot is shown on a meter as a money value. Usually the jackpot can only be won by winning the combination with the highest payoff, e.g. a royal flush at a video poker game, or five of the most valuable symbols lemons, cherries, alligators, etc on a slot machine. Once a player wins the jackpot, the jackpot resets to a preset minimum level.

The amount on the jackpot progresses increases a small amount for every play on a connected machine. The amount that the jackpot advances by is set by the casino the house. For example, on a machine whose house edge is 5%, a generous jackpot contribution might be 1% one fifth of the expected profit. The house is prepared to contribute some of the profit of a jackpot linked machine because players are attracted by the:

Relative novelty of progressive jackpots generally, only a small fraction of the house's gaming machines will be connected to a progressive jackpot

Constantly changing meter, often displayed on large LED or LCD displays

Large amount of the jackpot, which eventually motivates more players to play the game

Usually only players who wager the maximum number of credits per play qualify to win the jackpot. All wagers, whether or not they are maximum credit bets, contribute to the jackpot though. As a result, a game which requires a 10 credit wager to qualify for the progressive jackpot will tend to have the progressive jackpot rise to higher levels relative to its break-even level than a game that requires only a 5 credit wager to qualify.

In some games such as video poker, it is possible to compute an optimal playing strategy based on the frequency for each payoff versus the odds of hitting that payoff. Since the jackpot of a progressive video poker game is constantly growing, it eventually can reach a break-even point where the machine becomes a positive expectation bet for the player.

When the progressive jackpot is less than the break-even point, there is a negative expected value house edge for all players.

In the long run, with optimal strategy, a video poker player can make a profit, although the long run is generally longer than most people think. Several tens of thousands of plays.

It is worthwhile to note that a break-even point cannot be easily calculated on a slot machine game, because the payback percentage for the game is normally unknown to the player. The break-even point in video poker can be calculated because the payback percentage for the game is a function of the paybacks and odds of the poker hands, which is based on a standard 52 card deck. The return of a slot machine is based on the published paytable, but also on the normally unpublished reels. For a five reel slot machine, the player would need to know each symbol on each of the slot machine's five reels, in order to calculate the odds. For a three reel slot, the reels are normally weighted, and this would not be possible. However, in some circumstances the manufacturer may publish the payout of their machines.

Slot Machines are Slots

Slot Machines

Slot machines were introduced around the turn of the century, and their popularity increases daily. For many players, playing slots is still the most enjoyable and relaxing form of gambling.

These so called 'one-armed bandits' can be found in every casino, with a variety of models and coin denominations to please every player, including mechanical, electromechanical video, and the new touch-screen versions. With one touch of the screen, you can change from poker to slots. There are three to nine reels, criss-crosses, multiples, progressives, and specialty machines such as 21, Keno, Video Poker, Poker Bingo, and Video Horse Racing and Dog Racing. My favorite is the $.25 wheel of fortune slot machine with reels.

There are many different slot machine games. Jackpot size, combinations, symbols, size and number of coins allowed in each play vary as well. Included in these games are the popular Video Poker games. Modern slot machines are completely electronic. Symbol combinations come up randomly and machines are pre-programmed to return a certain percentage to the players.

Slots account for a good portion of a casino's action and winnings. They are simple to use, inexpensive to maintain, and require little or no skill to play.

To the player, a slot machine returns on average between 85% and 98%. The average casino advantage is calculated to be around 9%.

Slot Machines in California

In California, most of the slot machines print tickets and take paper money.

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The odds in favor of an event or a proposition are expressed as the ratio of a pair of integers, which is the ratio of the probability that an event will happen to the probability that it will not happen. For example, the odds that a randomly chosen day of the week is a Sunday are one to six, which is sometimes written 1:6, or 1/6. In probability theory and statistics, where the variable p is the probability in favor of the event, and the probability against the event is therefore 1-p, the odds of the event are the quotient of the two, or p/(1-p). That value may be regarded as the relative likelihood the event will happen, expressed as a fraction if it is less than 1, or a multiple if it is equal to or greater than one of the likelihood that the event will not happen. In the example just given, saying the odds of a Sunday are one to six or, less commonly, one-sixth means the probability of picking a Sunday randomly is one-sixth the probability of not picking a Sunday. While the mathematical probability of an event has a value in the range from zero to one, the odds in favor of that same event lie between zero and infinity. The odds against the event with probability given as p are (1-p)/p.

The odds against Sunday are 6:1 or 6/1 = 6: it is 6 times as likely that a random day is not a Sunday. Hence 'odds' are an expression of relative probabilities. Generally 'odds' are quoted in this format odds against rather than as odds in favor of, because of the possibility of confusion of the latter with the fractional probability of an event occurring. E.g., the probability of a random day of the week is a Sunday is 'one-seventh' 1/7. A bookmaker may for his own purposes use 'odds' of 'one-sixth', but the overwhelming everyday use by most people is odds of the form 6 to 1, 6-1, 6:1, or 6/1 all read as 'six-to-one' where the first figure represents the number of ways of failing to achieve the outcome and the second figure is the number of ways of achieving a favorable outcome: thus these are odds against. In other words, an event with m to n odds against would have probability n/ m + n, while an event with m to n odds on would have probability m/ m + n. Even in probability theory, odds may be more natural or more convenient than probabilities. This is in particular the case in problems of sequential decision making as for instance in problems of how to stop online on a last specific event, which is solved by the odds algorithm.

In some games of chance, using odds against is also the most convenient way to understand what winnings will be paid if the selection is successful: the winner will be paid 'six' of whatever stake unit was bet for each 'one' of the stake unit wagered. For example, a winning bet of 10 at 6/1 will win '6 × 10 = 60' with the original 10 stake also being returned. Betting odds are skewed to ensure that the bookmaker makes a profit—if true odds were offered the bookmaker would break even in the long run—so the numbers do not represent the true odds.

Odds on means that the event is more likely to happen than not. This is sometimes expressed with the smaller number first 1:2 but more often using the word on 2:1 on meaning that the event is twice as likely to happen as not.

Decimal presentation

Taking an event with a 1 in 5 probability of occurring i.e. a probability of 1/5, 0.2 or 20%, then the odds are 0.2 / 1 − 0.2 = 0.2 / 0.8 = 0.25. This figure 0.25 represents the monetary stake necessary for a person to gain one monetary unit on a successful wager when offered fair odds. This may be scaled up by any convenient factor to give whole number values. For example, if a stake of 0.25 wins 1 unit, then scaling by a factor of four means a stake of 1 wins 4 units.

Ratio presentation

Fixed odds gambling tends to represent the probability as fractional odds, and excludes the stake. For example, 0.20 is represented as 4 to 1 against written as 4-1, 4:1, or 4/1, since there are five outcomes of which four are unsuccessful. Thus, the stake returned must be added to the odds to compute the entire return of a successful bet. In craps, the payout would be represented as 5 for 1, and in money line odds as +400 representing the gain from a 100 stake.

By contrast, for an event with a 4 in 5 probability of occurring i.e. a probability of 4/5, 0.8 or 80%, then the odds are 0.8 / 1 − 0.8 = 4. If one bets 4 units at these odds and the event occurs, one receives back 1 unit plus the original unit 4 units stake. This would be presented in fractional odds of 4 to 1 on'' written as 1/4 or 1–4 , in decimal odds as 1.25 to include the returned stake, in craps as 5 for 4, and in money line odds as −400 representing the stake necessary to gain 100.

Fixed odds are not necessarily presented in the lowest possible terms; if there is a pattern of odds of 5–4, 7–4 and so on, odds which are mathematically 3–2 are more easily compared if expressed in the mathematically equivalent form 6–4. Similarly, 10–3 may be stated as 100–30.

Gambling odds versus probabilities

In gambling, the odds on display do not represent the true chances that the event will occur, but are the amounts that the bookmaker will pay out on winning bets. In formulating his odds to display the bookmaker will have included a profit margin which effectively means that the payout to a successful bettor is less than that represented by the true chance of the event occurring. This profit is known as the 'over-round' on the 'book' the 'book' refers to the old-fashioned ledger in which wagers were recorded, and is the derivation of the term 'bookmaker' and relates to the sum of the 'odds' in the following way:

In a 3-horse race, for example, the true probabilities of each of the horses winning based on their relative abilities may be 50%, 40% and 10%. These are simply the bookmaker's 'odds' multiplied by 100% for convenience. The total of these three percentages is 100%, thus representing a fair 'book'. The true odds against winning for each of the three horses are 1-1, 3-2 and 9-1 respectively. In order to generate a profit on the wagers accepted by the bookmaker he may decide to increase the values to 60%, 50% and 20% for the three horses, representing odds against of 4-6, 1-1 and 4-1. These values now total 130%, meaning that the book has an over round of 30 130 − 100. This value of 30 represents the amount of profit for the bookmaker if he accepts bets in the correct proportions on each of the horses. The art of bookmaking is that he will take in, for example, $130 in wagers and only pay $100 back including stakes no matter which horse wins.

Profiting in gambling involves predicting the relationship of the true probabilities to the payout odds. Sports information services are often used by professional and semi-professional sports bettors to help achieve this goal.

The odds or amounts the bookmaker will pay are determined by the total amount that has been bet on all of the possible events. They reflect the balance of wagers on either side of the event, and include the deduction of a bookmaker’s brokerage fee vig or vigorish.